The soybean harvest adds volume and alters the market

The climate stability generated by a prolonged period of sunny days, during the first half of April, accelerated the march of the machines throughout the country.

Under ideal environmental conditions, the producer concentrated mainly on the threshing of soybeans that advanced by leaps and bounds. From the beginning of the work is estimated that until this Sunday they threshed something more than At the same time, if we only count the last ten days, we collected the largest volume of recent years at these instances of the month. Only slight interruptions of short duration appeared from Thursday to Sunday with the appearance of intermittent showers in Buenos Aires province. In any case, intermittent showers of greater duration over the central and southeast regions, provided the humidity necessary for the maturation of late crops and/or second crops.

The most notorious developments took place in the south – central regions of Santa Fe, north of Buenos Aires and in most of Córdoba province. The yields that are materializing comfortably surpass the historical averages. As an example, in the northern nucleus, more precisely in Monte Maíz and Isla Verde, in the department of Marcos Juárez, Córdoba, results of 46.9 qq/ha with peaks of 49.8 qq/ha were reported. If we go more towards the southern end of Córdoba, the harvesting machines shed up to 57.0 qq/ha with an average that oscillated between 48.0 – 50.0 qq/ha. Over the northwest of Buenos Aires until this time, they reported up to 51,0 qq/ha on average. In the mentioned regions it is verified that the early crops have been able to reach their greatest potential. The counterpart is that these results tend to correlate with lower levels of protein, a not lesser issue concerning the start of factories.

The fast work in key agricultural areas resulted in a vertiginous growth of trucks traveling to the port terminals of Up-River. Given the persistent arrival of cargo vehicles, the logistics are practically at the top of their capacity: The main accesses are overflowing and long lines are generated to be able to unload the grains in the delivery terminals. In this context of harvest pressure, the business of unloading is the most “valued” and this is how the available goods market collapsed to levels of 210 US$/tn. Meanwhile, a few days after its expiration, the future “Apr-19 Rosario” operating in term presented a modest growth to 216 US$/tn or its equivalent in local currency with 9,320.40 AR$/tn.

Given that the decrease was more limited in the deferred contracts, the “carry” to November grew to 26 US$/tn and represents an annualized rate of 20.6%. Although this yield does not include the expenses incurred for storing the harvest, the market clearly encourages the proportioning, as far as possible, of the deliveries towards the end of the year to maximize the sale price. In the same way, an alternative is to close seven-month business at AR$ 13,890/tn if we include the Futures Curve of the exchange rate in ROFEX. Thus, the resulting rate in pesos amounts to 84% and more than compensates the financial costs and space for storage of the merchandise.

Internationally and on the eve of the first plantings in the southern United States begin to delineate the first details of the 2019/20 campaign. With the climatic factor as axis, the implantation will be developed gradually towards the north until concentrating in the agricultural belt and covering the Midwest of the country. The intense rains that affected the states of Nebraska, Iowa and Illinois left excess water in large sectors and caused some delays with the early incorporation of corn. Beyond the fact that there is still a margin of time, the possibility is evaluated that each hectare that is not destined for cereal may have an increase in the area of ​​soybean as a correlate.